In the 2008 presidential election, the key gaps revealed by CNN’s exit polls are the race and age votes. Obama was more successful at capturing the younger voters, and he was overwhelmingly more successful with minority candidates than the Democrats were in 2004.
Regarding the younger vote, Kerry won 54% of the vote for ages 18-29, compared to Obama’s 66%. Obama was also more successful with the 30-64 year old groups, beating Kerry by about 4-5%. The only age group the Republicans held a majority on was the elderly 65 and older group. For first time voters, Kerry won 53% in 2004, compared to Obama winning 69% in 2008. It was said that the parties used to do a lot more ground work personally contacting and interacting with citizens, so I wanted to see if this impacted Obama’s success. However, 26% of respondents in both 2004 and 2008 reported being personally contacted by the Kerry and Obama campaigns, so he didn’t seem to have gained too much ground in that aspect.
Regarding minorities, Obama was obviously much more successful at winning votes than McCain. Obama got about 95% of the black vote, close to 66% of the Latino vote, and 64% of other races. McCain did strongest with white male voters, and females were pretty much split between the candidates. This shows greater success from 2004, when Kerry won about 88% of the black vote and 55% of Latino and other races
As people became less concerned with terrorism and grew tired of the War in Iraq, Republicans lost the “security” vote they had gained in 2004. In the 2008 exit polls, 41% of respondents strongly disapproved of the War, and 87% of those were Obama supporters. Overall, I think Obama’s ability to overwhelmingly capture the minority vote, as well as his support from the young, allowed him to push past the Republicans when compared to 2004.
A side note I found rather interesting, yet expected, is an example of partisan identification in action. The poll question, “Who is qualified to be President if necessary”? Those who answered “Only Biden” were 91% Democrats, while those who chose “Only Palin” were 96% Republican. This also reveals slightly less bipartisan support for Palin.
I found the race gap in the 2008 election to be quite interesting. McCain's success was quite small, only winning the white vote, and Obama winning the majority of the minorty population. What I would be interested in (especially this time around with a minority presidential candidate) is why each of these voters voted that particular way. I have a feeling many people may have voted on racial lines instead of on issues or any other determinant of voting behavior.
ReplyDeleteNice post!