4/1 Blog Post: Electoral Mandates

To answer the question of whether Barack Obama had and still holds an electoral mandate, there first needs to be a definition. Broadly, an electoral mandate refers to widespread support from the voting population for a candidate’s policy proposals. During the 2008 campaign, Obama’s position within the Democratic party seemed to be a bipartisan strategy. It was suggested that Obama could be successful at bridging the gap between the parties, therefore creating cooperation among the major parties. On a broader level, especially later in the campaign, Obama emphasized his position of Change from the Bush administration and the way the U.S. was run for the past 8 years. The campaign was basically suggesting that a vote for McCain would be a vote for a continuation of the Bush presidency. Once the economic situation worsened towards the end of the race, this message of change seemed to really pick up, as I think a lot of observers felt that Bush’s economic policies weren’t working that well, and voting for McCain would keep a similar approach to the economy in place. Voters were aware of Obama’s plan for a stimulus package to create jobs, so they knew what they were voting for in that sense. Now, determining whether someone has an electoral mandate to implement their agenda is not a straightforward process. However, after looking at the 2008 presidential election results I would conclude that Obama did hold an electoral mandate. I would conclude this because of the fact that he won a popular majority among voters with 53%, and also won in the electoral college by a wide margin with 365 votes compared to McCain’s 173. Although Obama’s win in the popular vote was not quite as large, some of his support could have possibly been unrepresented, since Republicans and those from a higher socioeconomic status are more likely to vote. However, he still held the popular majority, so I would conclude that Obama did hold an electoral mandate. Obama also had a lot of support from the public as he first took office. This poll by CNNsays that when Obama first took office, 76% of respondents said he was a "strong and decisive leader", the highest for any President since Reagan. This seems to be a good accomplishment, as we have seen polarization among the parties and public increase since the Reagan era. However, Obama is still very early in his Presidency, and the policies he's enacted so far (stimulus package) have not stood the test of time. I also think the economic situation has gotten worse than expected, so some of the President's other plans have possibly been placed on the backburner for now. This could be important, because I would think Obama would want to push through as much legislation as he can while he still has high approval ratings and a unified majority in Congress. When examining Obama's approval ratings since January 09, you can see that 44% of respondents strongly approved of his job performance. By April 1, 37% strongly approve. In January, 65% total approved of his performance, compared to 57% as of April 1. This suggests that while Obama has lost some support, the majority of the public still approves of his performance as President. This fact, along with his unified Congressional majority, causes me to conclude that Obama still holds an electoral mandate. However, I think he could lose this mandate if his stimulus package proves unsuccessful or if the economy just doesn't turn around quick enough. If his majority in Congress receives too much pressure from their constituents, you could see some members back away from Obama's congressional majority, which could eventually dissolve his electoral mandate.